Saturday, 16 December 2017

Zeman or Drahoš to win presidential election

ČTK |
5 December 2017

Prague, Dec 4 (CTK) - Incumbent Czech President Milos Zeman or Science Academy former head Jiri Drahos are likely to win the direct presidential election that will be held in the Czech Republic in January, according to a model designed by the Institute of Political Studies of Charles University.

The probability that either Zeman or Drahos wins the election is about 90 percent now and their chances to win have been rather balanced for some time, the model combining opinion poll results and betting odds set by betting companies showed.

"At present Drahos seems to have a slightly higher chance, while at the end of November Zeman had a slightly higher chance," the project's author Zuzana Havrankova told CTK.

It seems nearly certain now that if Drahos fails to advance to the second round of the election, Zeman will become president again, she said.

Havrankova said the model was based on 11 relevant opinion polls for the first and second round of the election and for the betting odds that the Fortuna and Tipsport companies set for individual presidential candidates.

"The inclusion of betting odds is important because it reflects the changes of mood in society every day. One needs to realise that opinion polls are processed and released with a delay of up to a few weeks," she said.

But even a model based on all the available information can be mistaken, Havrankova said.

The election model available at the Kdovyhrajevolby.cz website is updated at least once a day.

At present, Drahos has a 44.02 percent chance of becoming president, while Zeman has a 43.36 percent chance of defending his post. Businessman Michal Horacek has a 5.45 percent chance and former right-wing prime minister Mirek Topolanek a 5.05 percent chance. The chance that one of the five remaining candidates would win is only about 2 percent, according to the model.

Havrankova said similar models are used abroad, especially in the United States.

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